Nifty 50 Post-Market Analysis – 20 June 2025 and Trading Outlook for 23 June 2025
1. Key Takeaways
- Closing: 25,112.40 – up 1.29 % as the index reclaimed 25K
- Sector Leaders: Banks, Telecom, Auto
- Macro Risk: U.S. strikes on Iran escalate oil risk and market volatility
- VIX: 13.6 – market calm, but geopolitical risks brewing
2. Price Action Breakdown
Opening: Initial dip below 24,800 absorbed swiftly. A bullish engulfing candle formed around 10:30 AM, suggesting accumulation.
Mid-Day: Tight consolidation around VWAP at 24,950. Volume faded, hinting at supply absorption.
Breakout: Post-1:30 PM, buyers rushed in, and Nifty broke above 25,000 with momentum, pushing toward 25,135 before mild profit booking.
3. Market Internals
| Indicator | Reading | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (30-min) | 67 | Approaching Overbought |
| India VIX | 13.6 | Calm Market |
| Put/Call Ratio | 1.02 | Balanced Sentiment |
4. Geopolitical Impact – Iran Conflict
Markets are reacting sharply to confirmed U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. The development threatens stability in the oil-rich Gulf, prompting energy traders to price in a risk premium.
According to Investing.com live crude oil prices, Brent Crude could gap up by $3–$5/barrel when markets reopen. A spike in oil may pressure OMCs like BPCL and IOC but benefit ONGC and Oil India.
Traders should monitor the USD/INR pair on FXStreet as a weakening rupee could trigger FII outflows from Indian equities.
5. Sector Performance
| Sector | Movement | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Banks | +2.1% | Positive on credit growth |
| Auto | +1.9% | Positive on sales data |
| Telecom | +2.0% | Positive on tariff hike buzz |
| Energy (OMCs) | -0.7% | Negative on crude spike |
6. Key Technical Levels
- Support: 24,960 / 24,820
- Resistance: 25,180 / 25,250 / 25,400
- Breakout Confirmation: Close above 25,250 on volume
7. Trading Strategy for Monday, 23 June 2025
Use SGX Nifty pre-open data to plan trades.
Intraday Plan
- Long above 25,180 (Target: 25,250+), SL: 25,120
- Short below 24,960 (Target: 24,820), SL: 25,030
Swing Idea
- Buy Nifty 25,300 CE if spot sustains above 25,250
- Target: 25,600–25,750, SL: Spot below 25,050
8. Conclusion
Nifty’s recovery above 25K reflects strong market confidence, but geopolitical instability due to Iran’s situation cannot be ignored. Be nimble, use defined-risk trades, and hedge appropriately. Focus on breakout confirmation and prepare for volatility.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a registered investment advisor before making trading decisions.
