📈 Breakdown Looms Below 24,800
🔍 Market Recap:
On June 12, 2025, the Nifty 50 Index closed the session at 24,856.00, reflecting a significant bearish sentiment through the day. The index experienced a steep decline from intraday highs, continuing the downward trend that started on June 11 and strengthened further on June 12.
Key Observations:
- Resistance Zone: Around 25,100 – 25,140, which previously acted as a support and now turned into a supply zone.
- Support Zone: Immediate support lies near 24,820 – 24,800. A break below this level could accelerate the downside momentum.
- Volume Analysis: Despite being a Friday, volume was above average in the latter half of the session, indicating strong institutional selling.
- Candle Patterns: A series of red candles without significant lower wicks highlights continued seller dominance.
🧠 Technical Indicators Summary
| Indicator | Signal |
|---|---|
| Moving Averages (20 & 50 EMA) | Bearish crossover confirmed |
| RSI (14) | ~36 – Weak momentum, nearing oversold |
| MACD | Bearish, with widening histogram |
| ATR (5) | Rising, indicating higher volatility |
📊 Chart Levels to Monitor (Based on 5-Min Chart)
| Level Type | Price |
|---|---|
| Intraday Resistance 1 | 24,925 |
| Intraday Resistance 2 | 25,100 |
| Intraday Support 1 | 24,838 |
| Breakdown Level | 24,800 |
| Reversal Confirmation | Above 25,140 with volume |
📅 Outlook for June 13, 2025
Given the continuation of bearish momentum and failure to recover above 25,000, Nifty is likely to open flat-to-negative unless there’s a strong global or domestic trigger.
✅ Bullish Scenario:
- Only above 25,140, with strength and volume.
- Target zones: 25,200 → 25,260.
- Strategy: Go long on a confirmed breakout with SL at 25,000.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
- Sustained break below 24,800 opens room for 24,720 → 24,650.
- Strategy: Short on breakdown below 24,800 with SL at 24,880.
🎯 Trading Strategy for June 13, 2025
📌 Plan A – Intraday Buy (Reversal Trade)
- Trigger: Break above 25,000 and sustain
- Entry: 25,020
- Targets: 25,100 / 25,140
- Stoploss: 24,960
📌 Plan B – Intraday Sell (Breakdown Trade)
- Trigger: Fall below 24,800
- Entry: 24,780
- Targets: 24,720 / 24,650
- Stoploss: 24,850
🛡️ Risk Management:
- Trade with fixed SL (Stop Loss) and use 1:2 reward-to-risk setup.
- Reduce position sizing in high volatility zones.
