📉 Nifty 50 Deep Post-Market Analysis – 18th June 2025
Market Summary:
On 18th June 2025, Nifty 50 exhibited a moderately bearish tone, closing at 24,941.40, down by 7.20 points or -0.03%. The session showed significant volatility with alternating buying and selling pressure, as indicated by multiple buy-sell signals on the chart. The overall intraday sentiment leaned toward cautious distribution, especially in the second half.
🕵️♂️ Intraday Price Action Analysis:
Morning Session:
- The market opened with a positive bias, building on the late recovery from the previous session.
- A strong bullish move was observed early in the day, with the index peaking around 24,986.4 (noted with a Sell signal).
- The green Ichimoku-like band confirmed bullish strength until mid-morning.
- A major Sell signal triggered at the top around 24,986.4, marking the short-term resistance.
Mid-Day:
- A gradual decline began post-peak, with price slipping below the mid-band and confirming a downtrend.
- The red cloud domination indicated that sellers had regained control.
- The index traded sideways for a few hours with low momentum, forming a narrow range zone—ideal for scalping strategies.
Afternoon Session:
- Around 2:45 PM, a Buy signal emerged from 24,779.76, which provided a minor recovery.
- However, the strength lacked follow-through, and another Sell signal at 24,854.35 showed that resistance remained intact.
- Market closed weak, slightly above the lower Bollinger-like band, suggesting uncertainty heading into the next session.
📊 Indicator & Technical Insights:
1. Trendline Analysis:
- A descending trendline from the intraday high was respected throughout the day.
- The breakout attempts failed repeatedly, showing strong selling interest at higher levels.
2. Signal Accuracy:
- The system (IAFL_NR) showed excellent precision in generating Sell at top and Buy near bottom signals.
- The most profitable trade occurred at Sell 24,986.4, resulting in a clean downward swing.
3. Support & Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 24,986 (intraday high and strong sell zone).
- Support Zone: 24,779 to 24,760 (repeated bounce-back zone).
📅 Nifty Outlook for 19th June 2025
Market Bias:
Neutral-to-Bearish (Cautious approach advised)
Scenarios to Watch:
- Bullish Breakout: A clean break above 24,986 with volume may trigger fresh long positions targeting 25,050–25,100.
- Bearish Breakdown: A breach below 24,764 could open gates toward 24,700, and even 24,640, the previous demand zone.
Global & Domestic Cues to Monitor:
- Crude oil fluctuations and FII activity.
- US Fed policy expectations and rupee-dollar trends.
- Banking and IT stocks’ sectoral performance.
📈 Intraday Trading Strategy for 19th June 2025
1. Breakout Strategy (for Volatile Opening):
- Buy above: 24,986 with SL 24,945 | Target: 25,040 / 25,100
- Sell below: 24,764 with SL 24,810 | Target: 24,700 / 24,640
2. Range-Bound Strategy (if Market Opens Flat):
- Scalp Long near: 24,780 with tight SL of 24,760 | Target: 24,840
- Scalp Short near: 24,860 with SL 24,886 | Target: 24,800
3. Option Strategy (Low Volatility Expected):
- Deploy Iron Condor between 24,700 PE and 25,100 CE with strikes spaced by 100.
- Expecting theta decay and low directional movement.
4. Swing Traders:
- Use the previous swing high (24,986) and swing low (24,764) as decision zones.
- Wait for a strong candle close beyond these levels on the 15-min or hourly chart.
Risk Management Tips:
- Avoid overnight positions without clear directional cues.
- Use trailing SL to lock in profits as the index nears key levels.
- Monitor VIX and volume divergence.
