Post-Market Analysis: Nifty 50 & Bank Nifty (23 June 202. Price Action, Strategy & Global Cues
Indian indices closed in the red on Monday, with Nifty 50 slipping back below 25,000 amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The 5-minute intraday chart shows that Nifty opened under pressure, falling sharply in the first hour (dropping from ~24,970 to ~24,950), then attempting a rally in late morning before stalling again near the psychological 25,000 level. Bank Nifty followed a similar pattern: it gapped down at open, found support around 56,000, then bounced mid-session before finishing modestly lower. Global risk-off cues (from Middle East conflict news and spiking oil prices) weighed on tech and financial stocks.
- Early Sell-off: Nifty fell sharply at the open due to US-Iran tension, with Sensex plunging ~550 pts by 9:30 AM.
- Midday Recovery: Relief rally around 11 AM; Nifty reclaimed ~24,960 before stalling. RBI easing helped sentiment.
- Afternoon Pullback: Selling resumed as oil surged. Nifty closed at 24,972 (−0.56%), Bank Nifty at 56,059 (−0.34%).
- Candlestick Patterns: Nifty formed a small green candle with wicks, signaling indecision. Bank Nifty had an “inside bar” day.
Technical Indicators & Key Levels
India VIX eased ~4% to 13.67, showing reduced fear. Nifty PCR rose to 1.14, suggesting strong support at 25,000. RSI was near 55, neutral. Nifty is above its 20-day EMA (~24,850) and 50-day EMA (~24,700), maintaining a bullish structure.
| Index/Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| India VIX | 13.67 (↓ 4%) |
| Nifty RSI | ~55 |
| Nifty PCR (26 Jun) | 1.14 |
| Bank Nifty PCR | 0.92 |
| 20-day EMA (Nifty) | 24,850 |
| 50-day EMA (Nifty) | 24,700 |
Sector Performance
IT was the biggest loser (−1.5%), followed by banking and auto (−1% to −1.1%). FMCG declined ~0.7%. In contrast, metals, pharma, and media were flat to mildly positive. Midcaps and smallcaps outperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 up ~0.3% and Smallcap ~0.7%.
| Sector | Change (%) |
|---|---|
| IT | −1.5% |
| Banking | −1.0% |
| Auto | −1.1% |
| FMCG | −0.7% |
| Pharma | +0.3% |
Global & Macro Cues
- Middle East Tension: Iran missile strikes on US base triggered fear. However, no US casualties reported eased panic. A ceasefire was declared later.
- Oil Prices: WTI spiked to $76.7 but reversed to ~$70.8 (↓5%) as panic faded. This helped cool inflation fears.
- US Markets: Despite geopolitical noise, Dow and S&P 500 closed higher. Asian markets opened stronger on Tuesday (e.g. Nikkei +1.1%).
Institutional Activity & Option Trends
- FII/DII Activity: FIIs sold ₹1,874cr; DIIs bought ₹5,592cr.
- Open Interest: Highest put OI at 25,000, major call OI unwind at 25,200. Suggests market expects a range of 24,800–25,200 in near term.
- Volatility: India VIX dropped to 13.67. Global VIX indicators also softened.
Strategy for 24 June 2025
- Intraday:
- Gap-up above 25,200 → Buy on dips toward 25,150. Targets: 25,400–25,500. SL: < 25,000.
- Failure above 25,200 or break below 25,000 → Short, targets: 24,800 & 24,700.
- Bank Nifty: Support at 56,000 & 55,400; resistance at 56,500–56,600.
- Swing: Long bias above 25,200. Break below 24,700 is bearish. Ideal trade: long call spreads or bullish put spreads above 25,000.
- Stocks to Watch: TCS, Infosys for recovery. Auto & banks on oil relief. FMCG may underperform if sentiment improves.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Traders must perform their own due diligence before acting on any information presented above.
